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Grumpa
Posted: May 09, 2020 - 12:17 am


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This topic is getting heavy air play and rotation in central and southwestern Ontario...also recreational hotspots.
Local residents versus the influx of seasonal visitors from larger urban centers.
It's a very divisive topic. Strong feeling on both sides.
But let's keep the risks and the numbers in perspective and not lose complete sensibilities...allowing fear to overwhelm us.
As of May 8th there's approximately 20,000 covid-19 cases in Ontario. Sadly, 1,540 fatalities so far with a 72% recovery rate. But 1,150 or 75% of those fatalities are tragically in long term care facilities and a sizable number of the remaining 400 poor souls, had contributing underlying health issues prior to infection.
Every year 20/100,000 of the our Ontario population dies from seasonal influenza. In a province of 14 million that's 2,800 people.
Sobering statistics but relevant to the discussion.
If you're a vulnerable member of society, your health is comprised or you're just fearful of contagion...be prudent, continue to take precautions, isolate or social distance as your situation permits...your choice, your prerogative.
But here's another aspect of this debate to keep in mind and consider...
The Ontario Ministry of Tourism invests $5+ million annual to promote Northern Ontario tourism. There's 37,000 business in Northern Ontario...9,000 (24%, 1 in 4) tourism dependent (1,300 in the North Bay area alone)...employing 105,000 people or 36% of northern Ontario's working population. Northern Ontario visitors spend $1.5 billion annually, the average of $300 per overnight visit. This is why the North Bay & District Chamber of Commerce and Tourism North Bay (TNB)/Sudbury spends massive amounts promoting and advertising Northern Ontario tourism and it's attractions through numerous portals, websites and other medium. Tourism and tourist $'s are vital to the livelihood of many Northern Ontario communities and families.
So...when it's deemed safe, social distancing protocols can be maintained and the appropriate working regulations implemented...allowing all northern Ontario business' to reopen......let's welcome, not deter, the annual influx of visitors...who are helping sustain the northern Ontario economy.
As a retired businessman and resident, I for one, will welcome you back Chingachcook (and all the other mostly responsible, reasonable and thoughtful seasonal visitors) with a hearty hello....as will a great number of northern Ontario business' and families (encompassing many of our friends, acquaintances and neighbors)...who are greatly dependent on your dollars.
Let northern Ontario business' have the right to earn those dollars once the opportunity again presents itself and the province deems it relatively safe to do so.
"A community can not survive which can't tell it's enemies from it's friends".

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Goshawk
Posted: May 09, 2020 - 04:39 am


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Excellent read....well done sir.

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DanPellerin
Posted: May 09, 2020 - 07:04 am


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Good article, hopefully things will change soon, we're a group of five and have been coming to the southbay area for over twenty years, in early June.
Hope to soon see all the great friends that we've made over those years. Stay safe

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ldub
Posted: May 09, 2020 - 08:13 am


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Couldn't agree more. There comes a point when the remedy causes more harm then the sickness. Every ones situation is different. If your allergic to peanuts, avoid peanuts.

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Longshank
Posted: May 09, 2020 - 11:19 am


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Grumpa, always so elagant

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HookMeUp
Posted: May 09, 2020 - 07:10 pm


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Between the virus, reading numerous posts in multiple forums my head hasn’t stopped spinning. Agree we’re all hoping for the best and that we can all get out without concern. Rather than retype I’ll just copying what I posted under LS forum...

The lockdown was to ‘slow’ the spread not to stop it. Staying home & having things shut down slowed the strain on hospitals.

There was never expectation to stop the virus given the prognosis - In early March Maclean's (more reputable than FB or unauthored Internet) their cover stated 50% of the population could become infected. Then a week later Hajdu stated that the rate could be between 30-70% (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-between-30-and-70-per-cent-of-canadians-could-be-infected-with/).

We are no where near these numbers as we are only gradually moving upwards which was the goal, but that doesn’t imply we still won’t continue to have numbers throughout the summer, fall and on (until either a vaccine or herd immunity).

Good luck to all & don’t forget your mothers tomorrow

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Northhunter
Posted: May 10, 2020 - 11:25 am


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There are many in the field who believe that this is merely the first "wave". I agree, the goal behind the measures taken was never to beat the virus but to lessen the strain on the healthcare system ("flatten the curve"). Because when it gets scary is when hospitals are at capacity, and this thing hits you but there's nowhere to go. There is suspicion it is/may become seasonal. A vaccine would help fix that, but we are not there yet. There is also suspicion that due to the genetics of strains that are present on other parts of the globe, that a vaccine would not be completely effective. This is new, they are learning as they go. It was originally thought that it spread to the rest of the world from the outbreak in Wuhan back in January (?), but it's apparently been confirmed to have been present as far back as November. The outbreak in New York didn't stem from travel from China either. They traced that to eastern Europe.

Ontario has 1500 deaths in 2 months. Which is not a lot from purely a mathematical standpoint, but that puts us on pace for 9000 in a year.. with social distancing, the school system shut down, etc., etc. The flu this is not.
It hits the elderly particularly hard. That's in part due to their overall health condition, and in part due to the fact that once it gets in an old age home or assisted living facility, they are basically locked inside with eachother and it. What happened in Quebec about a month ago was basically a worst case scenario that resulted in 31 deaths in a matter of days.

Confirmed cases arise from people getting tested. But they obviously don't test everybody, and it appears the majority who contract it go asymptomatic.

Kids remain largely unaffected. It's believed that this is because the receptors the virus use to enter the body are not fully developed until you are of adult age. They still get it, but mainly act as hosts and don't show symptoms.
It hits vapers and smokers particularly hard, because of how it interacts with the respiratory system. But it has also been learned that it can cause blood clots, strokes and kidney damage. Of those who get it, and get hit hard enough to need a ventilator, the average they are on it is 3 weeks. The lasting health effects of which are still ralatively unknown, as is the case with Covid-19 in general. There's now evidence it could possibly be sexually transmitted.

I'm not fear mongering. I don't watch a lot of news. I read a lot when I have the chance, and listen to a lot of podcasts while I'm at work or doing things around the house. I am watching this unfold with everybody else and trying to be realistic about it. It's not just the tourism industry in northern Ontario. It's everybody.

W5 did a program on it. I caught part of it last night, may have been a repeat.. anyone see it?

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Grumpa
Posted: May 10, 2020 - 01:11 pm


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There's been numerous programs on the virus already...likely many many more in the months and years to come. They'll study this virus for years...including any additional variations of the virus that may soon crop up...plus new ones that appear in the future. Conspiracy theories abound....Dr. Google is everyone's pandemic expert now.
Covid-19 (bat flu?), Sars (bird flu) the Spanish flu (swine flu connection) are all different from normal human to human transmitted viruses because their genetic makeup can have its origins with other animals, passing to humans...possibly passing back to other animal species as well.
The human immune system, after millions of years of evolution likely doesn't recognize these types of viruses, doesn't know how to combat or fight them. That's why it's so particularly virulent and devastating on the elderly and people with comprised health...their immune systems aren't as strong...possibly doesn't move as quick to defend against the invader.
The vast majority of the healthy contracting the virus can show little to no signs or symptoms at all. Some autopsies are even showing presumed healthy individuals that succumbed to the virus had previously undiagnosed underlying health issues. Time will pinpoint who were the most vulnerable and susceptible.
This likely won't be the last pandemic...the Spanish flu happened a hundred years ago...Sars less then 20 years ago...covid-19 today...they're occurring more frequently...high speed global travel the delivery vehicle now.
The black plague wiped out much of the Europe in the 13th-16th century, 25 million they estimate...presumably carried by the fleas on rats. How do they believe they controlled the black plague back then?...quarantine...until cases subsided...it never fully disappeared...likely the same for covid-19.
Life goes on...so let's get on with it.
We have to be confident they will eventually develop vaccines for this virus and each one that evolves after that...at least until something so contagious and airborne becomes an extinction level event for the human race. They make apocalyptic disaster movies about this stuff.
Our systems to manage these outbreaks will improve...we'll learn how to handle them faster and more efficiently...how to protect and isolate the most vulnerable, better...if and when future outbreaks occur.
Here's wishing a happy mothers day to all the amazing women out there. Please take the time...if you can...to remember those moms working on the front lines and especially those confined to long term care facilities...who we're not able to visit, touch and hug.
We did a family zoom with my mother-in-law in a nursing home today.
Those little things go a long way to lifting spirits.

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Northhunter
Posted: May 10, 2020 - 02:29 pm


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I don't completely understand it because I'm no expert on this type of stuff, but apparently it's the immune systems reaction that kills. That's what causes the blood clots, pneumonia and organ failure.

When we were kids our family doctor was from China. He had a conversation with our mother one day about diseases etc., and what he said to her then was basically "We haven't seen anything yet."

They believe that if China had nipped this in the but and reacted sooner rather than later that it would have limited transmission by as much as 95%.

To me personally, the scary stuff is the prion based diseases. Mad Cow, CWD, etc., because we presumably can't kill it. It's always there.

Talked to my mom this morning. No cards this year...


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WTFish
Posted: May 11, 2020 - 07:55 am


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QUOTE (Northhunter @ May 10, 2020 - 02:29 pm)
They believe that if China had nipped this in the but and reacted sooner rather than later that it would have limited transmission by as much as 95%.

China didn't know what they were dealing with. They did remarkably well considering. Compared to USA who had months of warning and still did much much worse than China. Kind of revealing, they used to be leaders in just about everything... Those days are gone, outsourced to benefit the billionaires. Vast majority of our cases came from US.

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sandybay
Posted: May 11, 2020 - 10:46 am


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QUOTE (Northhunter @ May 05, 2020 - 04:04 pm)
Last I heard was the anouncement that marinas were given the green light to prep for the upcoming season. No dates were announced. I dunno if operators/lodges are included but there was something on the radio this morning about small business being told to get ready. Again.. no dates.

Here is a link to what us operators are allowed.
https://noto.ca/COVID19

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Chingachcook
Posted: May 11, 2020 - 01:47 pm


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QUOTE (WTFish @ May 11, 2020 - 08:55 am)
QUOTE (Northhunter @ May 10, 2020 - 02:29 pm)
They believe that if China had nipped this in the bud and reacted sooner rather than later that it would have limited transmission by as much as 95%.

China didn't know what they were dealing with. They did remarkably well considering. Compared to USA who had months of warning and still did much much worse than China. Kind of revealing, they used to be leaders in just about everything... Those days are gone, outsourced to benefit the billionaires. Vast majority of our cases came from US.

Most Canadians trust China about as much as they trust the guy who has a full stringer telling them with GPS accuracy where he actually caught them.

China is a brutal totalitarian dictatorship.

They harvest minority populations organs.
They throw people in jail on a whim.
They put religious groups into gulags.
They kill their own people.

Do not trust a single syllable these people say.
[B]

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sandybay
Posted: May 11, 2020 - 03:11 pm


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c/p
Clarification on the Ontario Parks announcement:
Over the weekend, the Premier announced that Ontario Parks will be opening this week. This does not mean they are open for camping, boating, fishing, etc. nor are they making money from opening. Government has made it clear that the parks will only be open for free daytime access for activities such as walking, hiking, biking and birdwatching. All other activities are prohibited and all amenities and facilities, including washrooms will be closed to the public.

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ldub
Posted: May 11, 2020 - 03:21 pm


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Not sure how fishing off shore is more dangerous then walking, or staring at birds, but the geniuses know best. I guess if there isn't money to be made then it's still considered a health and safety concern. I wondered around Canadian Tire with a bunch of other zombies, somehow that's safe now.

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ldub
Posted: May 11, 2020 - 04:08 pm


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I've been off work for a week, they already tossed me a check for 2 grand. I assume that's the # they came up with to keep the zombies happy.

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