My “educated” guess, Cooks bay by the weekend?

[Beamer866]

So I seen the blue ice report this morning and I am counting today’s ice build.
But if this weather stays, and my calculations are correct.
I know where I’ll be Friday/ Saturday🤘
Cooks bay locked up this morning, with these temps and wind we built.
O.6633” of ice today. ( 5/8th”)
2018/12/24 we will build 0.93454” (7/8th”) of ice.
2018/12/25 we will build 0.9045” (7/8th”) of ice.
2018/12/26 we will build 1.23615” (1-1/4”) of ice.
And after 2” of ice is built; if the next 48 hrs maintain a 10+FDDs
The ice can grow exponentially to 5” and after 5” weather permitting it tends to drop back to around a half inch every 24hrs.
All that being said, weather permitting.
Fingers crossed ladies and gents🤞

Hopefully this takes a little of the guess work out for you guys.
“ no ice, is safe ice though, always spud your way out for yourself! “
And by no means is this an exact calculation.
Don’t not take my word for this check yourself.
This also doesn’t account for snow/rain/cloud/sun

Cheers, and happy holidays!

http://lakeice.squarespace.com/ice-growth/
https://www.outdoorcanada.ca/how-fast-does-...-lake-make-ice/

[Beamer866]

The math.... 🤢

[rayray89]

I applaud your research and hope your right.

Here I am over here thinking I do alot of planning to get out on walkable ice , your on a next level

[kingphoenix]

Fridays temps and rain will ruin all your calculations. Im seeing pretty high winds as well, lots of open water on the lake still.

[Beamer866]

I have a feeling you are right king, I was hoping I’d see the weekend forecast change as the week went on.. well it did, but for the worse. 🤬

[Grandpa Jim]

Great stuff. Quite interesting for sure. Your caveat concerning your prediction to be dependent on snow/rain/cloud/sun is totally valid but, with all due respect, the single most important factor in ice formation other than temperature is wind. I have seen N/W winds break up perfectly clear 8 to 10 inch ice off Georgina some years, leaving a moonscape of jagged surface structure on re-freezing.
I admit I should have more faith in our weather forecasts for long range temperature patterns but I have for years accepted that what will be will be when it comes to "safe" ice formation on Simcoe. As long as there are substantial areas of open water providing enough fetch for significant wave formation, I really think it's a crap shoot as to when to venture out.
Play safe and good luck to all the members here for a successful and lengthy hard water season.

[ehssoul]

Check out blue ice report. YouTube

[Dee004]

The scientific approach. I sure hope for your right on the money. I'm getting antsy.